Why does the British Brexit stall?
Two years after the vote on Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, there have been no significant changes. Moreover, the country is gaining strength calls for a repeat vote and to cancel the divorce from the EU.
June 23, 2016, the inhabitants of Britain sensationally voted for the country’s withdrawal from the European Union. This decision has given rise to serious changes both within Britain and in Europe. Prime Minister David Cameron left his post, Teresa May came to take his place, and was instructed to negotiate terms of withdrawal. But two years have passed, there are still no final decisions, and in Great Britain a movement is gaining momentum, requiring a repeated vote on Brexit.
“Pyrrhic victory”
On March 19 this year, British and European newspapers came out with huge editorials: “The decisive stage is coming,” “We’re at the finish line,” “The exit is close.” On this day, the UK and the EU agreed on the parameters of the transition period for breccia.
The key points of the proposed document are as follows. London will lose its voice when making foreign policy decisions in the EU, but will retain almost all the existing trade agreements with Brussels. EU citizens will have the same rights in the UK as before Brexit. True, now all newly arrived should be registered with the British Ministry of Internal Affairs no later than 3 months after entry.
A separate acute issue is the border between the British Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. For a long time in Northern Ireland there was a struggle between Catholics and Protestants. The first advocated for independence, the second – for staying in the United Kingdom. After decades of clashes and terrorist attacks between the warring factions, an agreement was reached. One of his points is the open border between the two Irish countries. The problem is that after leaving the EU the borders should be closed. What to do with this issue, European and British politicians have not decided.
According to the submitted document, the transition period will last 21 months from the date of the official exit of the country from the EU: from March 29, 2019 to December 31, 2020.
Negotiations on Brexit conditions are still ongoing. The current version of the divorce caused discontent of all interested forces. One of the main ideologists of the breccia, Nigel Faraj, said that the paragraph about equal rights of English and labor migrants from Europe is “terrible”, called Teresa May “conciliator” and urged her to resign. A deputy from the ruling Conservative Party, Douglas Ross, said that “it would be easier to get someone to drink a pint of vomiting than to imagine such a result as a success.” And The Guardian called the agreement a “Pyrrhic victory,” as it remains unclear how the exit will affect the country’s economy. In the EU, meanwhile, calls for making the agreement as stringent as possible, so that others will not leave the union.
June 8 in Britain, a campaign was launched to hold a repeat referendum on Brexit during the year. His leading force was the movement “Best for Britain”, which is sponsored by American financier George Soros.
Soros believes that the divorce between the EU and the UK will be too long: it will take at least 5 years. “Such a period is an eternity in politics, especially in such revolutionary times as now,” he says. According to the financier, in the event of Britain’s withdrawal, the EU is waiting for an inevitable financial crisis due to the growth of the dollar and the outflow of capital from emerging markets. “The British will eventually have to decide what they want and what will be better. This is the only goal of the Best for Britain movement, which I support, “the financier himself said in an interview with the Independent.
On the way to its goal, Best for Britain organizes protest actions and launches a nationwide campaign. Only from Soros the movement received for this purpose 557 thousand dollars. As in the first referendum, the main support for the idea of Best for Britain is among the youth. Young people are frightened by the possible introduction of visas, difficulties with obtaining education in Europe, economic uncertainty. Many believe that people in a referendum voted not for an exit from the EU, but against a bureaucracy that has exhausted everyone. In addition, the opponents of the appeal to the figures. So, only in the first 12 months after the referendum, European banks withdrew from the assets associated with the UK 350 billion euros.
However, despite all the hype, the probability that a new vote will be held is not high. First, the parliament is still controlled by supporters of the country’s withdrawal from the EU. Secondly, there are fears that the cancellation of the decision on withdrawal can provoke mass riots. Finally, the British society is rapidly growing tired of Brexit. Everybody wants this story to end soon.